TYPHOON PREPAREDNESS CENTER
NAGA COLLEGE FOUNDATION

No active tropical cyclone is present over the South China Sea, Philippine Sea & the Western Pacific Basin at this time..

Easterly Windflow (aka. Easterly Wave) bringing scattered to widespread rains w/ thunderstorms across Metro Manila, Bicol Region, Southern Luzon and Visayas.

 Easterly Windflow (aka. Easterly Wave) bringing scattered to widespread rains w/ thunderstorms across Metro Manila, Bicol Region, Southern Luzon and Visayas.

NCF TYPHOON PREPAREDNESS CENTER

TYPHOON SANTI CAMARINES SUR ADVISORY NUMBER 003

7 PM LOCAL TIME (11 GMT) FRI OCTOBER 30 2009

TYPHOON SANTI (MIRINAE) NOW PASSING NORTH OF PARTIDO…TOWARDS THE COASTAL AREAS OF CAMARINES NORTE.

CURRENT INFORMATION:

TIME:  7 PM TODAY FRIDAY OCT 30

POSITION:  LAT 14.6 N, LON 123.7 E

DISTANCE FROM 1^ST DISTRICT:  115 KM NE OF LIBMANAN

DISTANCE FROM 2^ND DISTRICT:  125 KM NNE OF METRO NAGA/CWC

DISTANCE FROM 3^RD DISTRICT:  90 KM NORTH OF CARAMOAN (GOTA BEACH)

DISTANCE FROM 4^TH DISTRICT:  135 KM NNE OF IRIGA CITY

1-MIN SUSTAINED WINDS-GUSTINESS:  160-195 KPH

10-MIN PAGASA SUSTAINED WINDS-GUSTINESS:  150-185 KPH

RECENT MOVEMENT:  WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 22 KPH

TOWARDS:  POLILLO ISLANDS-NORTHERN QUEZON-METRO MANILA.

 FORECAST OUTLOOK / POSITIONS:

The core (eye and eyewall) of SANTI is expected to just pass about 65 km. to the North of Siruma or 110 km. North of Naga City around 10 or 11 PM tonight.

However, a sudden downward turn (more WSW) will bring the core very near Partido bringing strong winds in excess of 100 kph.

 We urge to get the latest info on this  strong system every 3 or 6 hours to clearly show where it will go. Typhoons tend to shift their track 6 hours before its passage. 

CURRENT & POTENTIAL EFFECTS:

 SANTI’s main circulation (555 km across) remains over the Philippine Sea and is now affecting Camarines Sur mildly tonight. 

 CORE (EYE & EYEWALL)...still over water…will not affect Camarines Sur…will pass with a distance of 65 km. North of Siruma tonight around 10-11 PM. 

 INNER (RAIN) BANDS…expected to affect move into the Northern Coastal Areas of Camarines Sur (Partido, 1^st & 2^nd district facing San Miguel Bay)  beginning tonight. Moderate to heavy rains of up to 100 mm (6-hrly rain amounts) can be expected w/ winds of 60-100 kph  this evening.

 OUTER (RAIN) BANDS…continues to spread across Camarines Sur. Light to moderate rains of 2mm to 80 mm w/ winds of not in excess of 70 kph can be expected tonight. 

TROPICAL CYCLONE HAZARDS:

 HIGH WINDS

 3^rd DISTRICT (PARTIDO):   Very strong winds of not more than 100 kph can be expected especially during its closest approach evening.

 2^nd DISTRICT (METRO NAGA):  Strong winds not in excess of 80 kph can be expected during its closest approach tonight around 9-10 PM.

 1^ST DISTRICT:   Moderate to slightly strong winds not in excess of 80 kph can be expected during its closest approach tonight approx 11 PM.

 4^th DISTRICT (RINCONADA):   Moderate to strong winds not in excess of 50 kph can be expected during its closest approach this evening.

 STORM SURGE / COASTAL FLOODING

 3^rd DISTRICT (PARTIDO):   Large and battering waves of 6 to 8 feet with coastal flooding of less than 3 feet can be expected along the eastern & northern coastlines & beach-front areas…especially the municipalities of Caramoan, Garchitorena, Lagonoy, Tinambac & Siruma. Moderate damage to docks, piers and ports can be expected on this type of storm surge.

2^nd DISTRICT (METRO NAGA):   Large and battering waves of 4 to 5 feet with coastal flooding of less than 2 feet can be expected along coastlines & beach-front areas facing San Miguel Bay…especially the municipalities of Cabusao and Calabanga. Minimal damage to docks, piers and ports can be expected on this type of storm surge.

1^st DISTRICT:   Large and battering waves of 4 to 5 feet  with coastal flooding of less than 1 feet can be expected along coastlines & beach-front areas facing Ragay Gulf & San Miguel Bay…especially the municipalities of Del Gallego, Ragay, Lupi, Pasacao, and Sipocot. Minimal damage to docks, piers and ports can be expected on this type of storm surge.

4^th DISTRICT (RINCONADA):  Large and battering waves of 4 to 5 feet  with coastal flooding of less than 1 feet can be expected along coastlines & beach-front areas of Bula and Balatan, facing Ragay Gulf. Minimal damage to docks, piers and ports can be expected on this type of storm surge.

 INLAND FLOODING (Changes in effect due to sudden slow-down of SANTI)

 2^nd DISTRICT (METRO NAGA):   Moderate flooding of 2-4 feet caused by the swelling of the Bicol & Naga Rivers can be expected especially along the flood-risk areas of Naga City, Canaman, Magarao, Camaligan, Gainza & Milaor.

 4^th DISTRICT (RINCONADA):   Moderate to heavy flooding of more more than 4 feet caused by  the swelling of Lakes Baao and Bato and portions of Bicol River can be expected especially along the flood-risk areas of Iriga City, Nabua, Baao, Bato, Bula & Buhi. 

1^st DISTRICT:   Moderate to heavy flooding of more than 3 feet caused by  the swelling of Bicol River and other small rivers/estuaries can be expected along the flood-risk areas of the district particularly Sipocot, San Fernando & Minalabac.

3^rd DISTRICT (PARTIDO):  Light to moderate flooding of 2 to 3 feet caused by the swelling of small rivers and estuaries can be expected along the flood-risk areas of the district.

LANDSLIDES

 3^rd DISTRICT (PARTIDO):   Small to widespread landslides can be expected along the landslide-hazard areas particularly along the steep eastern slopes of Mt. Isarog due to possible rainfall brought about by SANTI’s rainbands.

1^st DISTRICT:   Small to widespread landslides can be expected along the landslide-hazard-risk areas particularly along the steep slopes of Ragay Hills and the western slopes of Mt. Labo due to possible rainfall from the rainbands of SANTI.

4^th DISTRICT (RINCONADA):  Landslides can be expected along the steep slopes of Mt. Asog (Iriga) particularly along the municipality Buhi and the city of Iriga…These landslides can also occur along the the southern steep slopes of Ragay Hills which passes the municipalities of Bula and Balatan.

2^rd DISTRICT (METRO NAGA):  None to isolated landslides can be expected along the steep northwestern, western, southwestern & southern slopes of Mt. Isarog particularly along the upper barangays of Naga City, Pili, and Ocampo.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 10:00 PM TONIGHT… …FOLLOWED BY THE FULL ADVISORY AROUND 1:00 AM TOMORROW

NCF TYPHOON PREPAREDNESS CENTER

TYPHOON SANTI CAMARINES SUR ADVISORY NUMBER 002A

4 PM LOCAL TIME (05 GMT) FRI OCTOBER 30 2009

TYPHOON SANTI (MIRINAE) SLOWING DOWN AS IT MOVED WEST-SOUTHWEST CLOSER TO PARTIDO AREA…WILL PASS NORTH OF CAMARINES SUR TONIGHT.

CURRENT INFORMATION:

TIME:  4 PM TODAY FRIDAY OCT 30

POSITION:  LAT 14.8 N, LON 124.2 E

DISTANCE FROM 1^ST DISTRICT:  165 KM NE OF LIBMANAN

DISTANCE FROM 2^ND DISTRICT:  170 KM NNE OF METRO NAGA/CWC

DISTANCE FROM 3^RD DISTRICT:  120 KM NNE OF CARAMOAN (GOTA BEACH)

DISTANCE FROM 4^TH DISTRICT:  180 KM NNE OF IRIGA CITY

1-MIN SUSTAINED WINDS-GUSTINESS:  160-195 KPH

10-MIN PAGASA SUSTAINED WINDS-GUSTINESS:  150-185 KPH

RECENT MOVEMENT:  WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 20 KPH

TOWARDS:  POLILLO ISLANDS-NORTHERN QUEZON-METRO MANILA.

 FORECAST OUTLOOK / POSITIONS:

The core (eye and eyewall) of SANTI is expected to just pass about 65 km. to the North of Siruma or 120 km. North of Naga City around 10 PM tonight.

However, a sudden downward turn (more WSW) shall bring the core very near Partido bringing strong winds in excess of 100 kph.

 We urge to get the lastest info on this  strong system every 3 or 6 hours to clearly show where it will go. Typhoons tend to shift their track 6 hours before its passage. 

CURRENT & POTENTIAL EFFECTS:

 SANTI’s main circulation (555 km across) remains over the Philippine Sea but is likely to affect Camarines Sur tonight. 

 CORE (EYE & EYEWALL)...still over water…will not affect Camarines Sur…will pass with a distance of 65 km. North of Siruma tonight around 8-9 PM. 

 INNER (RAIN) BANDS…expected to affect move into the Northern Coastal Areas of Camarines Sur (Partido, 1^st & 2^nd district facing San Miguel Bay)  beginning tonight. Moderate to heavy rains of up to 100 mm (6-hrly rain amounts) can be expected w/ winds of 60-100 kph  this evening.

 OUTER (RAIN) BANDS…continues to spread across Camarines Sur. Light to moderate rains of 2mm to 80 mm w/ winds of not in excess of 70 kph can be expected tonight. 

 TROPICAL CYCLONE HAZARDS:

 HIGH WINDS

 3^rd DISTRICT (PARTIDO):   Very strong winds of not more than 100 kph can be expected tonight especially during its closest approach beginning this evening.

 2^nd DISTRICT (METRO NAGA):  Strong winds not in excess of 80 kph can be expected during its closest approach tonight around 10-11 PM.

 1^ST DISTRICT:   Moderate to slightly strong winds not in excess of 80 kph can be expected during its closest approach tonight approx 11 PM.

 4^th DISTRICT (RINCONADA):   Moderate to strong winds not in excess of 50 kph can be expected during its closest approach this evening.

 STORM SURGE / COASTAL FLOODING

 3^rd DISTRICT (PARTIDO):   Large and battering waves of 6 to 8 feet with coastal flooding of less than 1 feet can be expected along the eastern & northern coastlines & beach-front areas…especially the municipalities of Caramoan, Garchitorena, Lagonoy, Tinambac & Siruma. Moderate damage to docks, piers and ports can be expected on this type of storm surge.

2^nd DISTRICT (METRO NAGA):   Large and battering waves of 4 to 5 feet with coastal flooding of less than 1 feet can be expected along coastlines & beach-front areas facing San Miguel Bay…especially the municipalities of Cabusao and Calabanga. Minimal damage to docks, piers and ports can be expected on this type of storm surge.

 1^st DISTRICT:   Large and battering waves of 4 to 5 feet  with coastal flooding of less than 1 feet can be expected along coastlines & beach-front areas facing Ragay Gulf & San Miguel Bay…especially the municipalities of Del Gallego, Ragay, Lupi, Pasacao, and Sipocot. Minimal damage to docks, piers and ports can be expected on this type of storm surge.

 INLAND FLOODING (Changes in effect due to sudden slow-down of SANTI)

 2^nd DISTRICT (METRO NAGA):   Moderate flooding of 2-4 feet caused by the swelling of the Bicol & Naga Rivers can be expected especially along the flood-risk areas of Naga City, Canaman, Magarao, Camaligan, Gainza & Milaor.

 4^th DISTRICT (RINCONADA):   Moderate to heavy flooding of more more than 4 feet caused by  the swelling of Lakes Baao and Bato and portions of Bicol River can be expected especially along the flood-risk areas of Iriga City, Nabua, Baao, Bato, Bula & Buhi.  

1^st DISTRICT:   Moderate to heavy flooding of more than 3 feet caused by  the swelling of Bicol River and other small rivers/estuaries can be expected along the flood-risk areas of the district particularly Sipocot, San Fernando & Minalabac.\

3^rd DISTRICT (PARTIDO):  Light to moderate flooding of 2 to 3 feet caused by the swelling of small rivers and estuaries can be expected along the flood-risk areas of the district.

 3^rd DISTRICT (PARTIDO):   Small to widespread landslides can be expected along the landslide-hazard areas particularly along the steep eastern slopes of Mt. Isarog due to possible rainfall brought about by SANTI’s rainband

1^st DISTRICT:   Small to widespread landslides can be expected along the landslide-hazard-risk areas particularly along the steep slopes of Ragay Hills and the western slopes of Mt. Labo due to possible rainfall from the rainbands of SANTI.

4^th DISTRICT (RINCONADA):  Landslides can be expected along the steep slopes of Mt. Asog (Iriga) particularly along the municipality Buhi and the city of Iriga…These landslides can also occur along the the southern steep slopes of Ragay Hills which passes the municipalities of Bula and Balatan.

2^rd DISTRICT (METRO NAGA):  None to isolated landslides can be expected along the steep northwestern, western, southwestern & southern slopes of Mt. Isarog particularly along the upper barangays of Naga City, Pili, and Ocampo.

A FULL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 7:00 PM TONIGHT…FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AROUND 10:00 PM.

NCF TYPHOON PREPAREDNESS CENTER

TYPHOON SANTI CAMARINES SUR ADVISORY NUMBER 002

1 PM LOCAL TIME (05 GMT) FRI OCTOBER 30 2009

TYPHOON SANTI (MIRINAE) SLIGHTLY MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST CLOSER TO PARTIDO AREA…WILL PASS NORTH OF CAMARINES SUR EARLY TONIGHT.

CURRENT INFORMATION:

TIME:  1 PM TODAY FRIDAY OCT 30

POSITION:  LAT 14.9 N, LON 124.5 E

DISTANCE FROM 1^ST DISTRICT:  205 KM NE OF LIBMANAN

DISTANCE FROM 2^ND DISTRICT:  200 KM NNE OF METRO NAGA/CWC

DISTANCE FROM 3^RD DISTRICT:  145 KM NE OF CARAMOAN (GOTA BEACH)

DISTANCE FROM 4^TH DISTRICT:  205 KM NE OF IRIGA CITY

1-MIN SUSTAINED WINDS-GUSTINESS:  165-205 KPH

10-MIN PAGASA SUSTAINED WINDS-GUSTINESS:  150-185 KPH

RECENT MOVEMENT:  WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 31 KPH

TOWARDS:  POLILLO ISLANDS-NORTHERN QUEZON-BULACAN.

FORECAST OUTLOOK / POSITIONS:

The core (eye and eyewall) of SANTI is expected to just pass about 70 km. to the North of Siruma or 120 km. North of Naga City around 6 PM tonight.

However, a sudden downward turn (more WSW) shall bring the core very near Partido bringing strong winds in excess of 100 kph.

We urge to get the lastest info on this  strong system every 3 or 6 hours to clearly show where it will go. Typhoons tend to shift their track 6 hours before its passage. 

CURRENT & POTENTIAL EFFECTS:

SANTI’s main circulation (590 km across) remains over the Philippine Sea but is likely to affect Camarines Sur this afternoon until tonight. 

CORE (EYE & EYEWALL)...still over water…will not affect Camarines Sur…will pass with a distance of 70 km. North of Siruma early tonight. 

INNER (RAIN) BANDS…expected to affect move into the Northern Coastal Areas of Camarines Sur (Partido, 1^st & 2^nd district facing San Miguel Bay)  beginning early this afternoon. Moderate to heavy rains of up to 100 mm (6-hrly rain amounts) can be expected w/ winds of 60-100 kph before sunset and through the evening.

OUTER (RAIN) BANDS…continues to spread across Camarines Sur. Light to moderate rains of 2mm to 80 mm w/ winds of not in excess of 60 kph can be expected late this afternoon through the  evening. 

 TROPICAL CYCLONE HAZARDS:

HIGH WINDS

• 3^rd DISTRICT (PARTIDO):   Very strong winds of not more than 100 kph can be expected  tonight especially during its closest approach beginning 4 PM until early evening.

• 2^nd DISTRICT (METRO NAGA):  Strong winds not in excess of 80 kph can be expected during its closest approach after sunset or around 6 PM.

 1^ST DISTRICT:   Moderate to slightly strong winds not in excess of 80 kph can be expected during its closest approach tonight approx 7 PM.

• 4^th DISTRICT (RINCONADA):   Moderate to strong winds not in excess of 50 kph can be expected during its closest approach this evening.
  
  

 STORM SURGE / COASTAL FLOODING

• 3^rd DISTRICT (PARTIDO):   Large and battering waves of 6 to 8 feet with coastal flooding of less than 1 feet can be expected along the eastern & northern coastlines & beach-front areas…especially the municipalities of Caramoan, Garchitorena, Lagonoy, Tinambac & Siruma. Moderate damage to docks, piers and ports can be expected on this type of storm surge.
  
  
• 2^nd DISTRICT (METRO NAGA):   Large and battering waves of 4 to 5 feet with coastal flooding of less than 1 feet can be expected along coastlines & beach-front areas facing San Miguel Bay…especially the municipalities of Cabusao and Calabanga. Minimal damage to docks, piers and ports can be expected on this type of storm surge.
  
  
• 1^st DISTRICT:   Large and battering waves of 4 to 5 feet  with coastal flooding of less than 1 feet can be expected along coastlines & beach-front areas facing Ragay Gulf & San Miguel Bay…especially the municipalities of Del Gallego, Ragay, Lupi, Pasacao, and Sipocot. Minimal damage to docks, piers and ports can be expected on this type of storm surge.
  
  
• 4^th DISTRICT (RINCONADA):  Large and battering waves of 4 to 5 feet  with coastal flooding of less than 1 feet can be expected along coastlines & beach-front areas of Bula and Balatan, facing Ragay Gulf. Minimal damage to docks, piers and ports can be expected on this type of storm surge.
• INLAND FLOODING

• 2^nd DISTRICT (METRO NAGA):   Light flooding of 1-2 feet caused by the swelling of the Bicol & Naga Rivers can be expected especially along the flood-risk areas of Naga City, Canaman, Magarao, Camaligan, Gainza & Milaor.

• 4^th DISTRICT (RINCONADA):   Light to moderate flooding of not more more than 3 feet caused by  the swelling of Lakes Baao and Bato and portions of Bicol River can be expected especially along the flood-risk areas of Iriga City, Nabua, Baao, Bato, Bula & Buhi.  
  
  
• 1^st DISTRICT:   Light to moderate flooding of not more than 3 feet caused by  the swelling of Bicol River and other small rivers/estuaries can be expected along the flood-risk areas of the district particularly Sipocot, San Fernando & Minalabac.
  
  
• 3^rd DISTRICT (PARTIDO):  Light flooding of 1 to 2 feet caused by the swelling of small rivers and estuaries can be expected along the flood-risk areas of the district.
  
  

LANDSLIDES

• 3^rd DISTRICT (PARTIDO):   Small to isolated landslides can be expected along the landslide-hazard areas particularly along the steep eastern slopes of Mt. Isarog due to possible rainfall brought about by SANTI’s rainbands.
  
  
• 1^st DISTRICT:   Small to isolated landslides can be expected along the landslide-hazard-risk areas particularly along the steep slopes of Ragay Hills and the western slopes of Mt. Labo due to possible rainfall from the rainbands of SANTI.
  
  
• 4^th DISTRICT (RINCONADA):  Small to isolated landslides can be expected along the steep slopes of Mt. Asog (Iriga) particularly along the municipality Buhi and the city of Iriga…These landslides can also occur along the the southern steep slopes of Ragay Hills which passes the municipalities of Bula and Balatan.
  
  
• 2^rd DISTRICT (METRO NAGA):  None to isolated landslides can be expected along the steep northwestern, western, southwestern & southern slopes of Mt. Isarog particularly along the upper barangays of Naga City, Pili, and Ocampo.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE RELEASED AROUND 4:00 PM…FOLLOWED BY A FULL ADVISORY AROUND 7:00 PM TONIGHT.

NCF TYPHOON PREPAREDNESS CENTER

TYPHOON SANTI CAMARINES SUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 001A

10 AM LOCAL TIME (22 GMT) FRI OCTOBER 30 2009

TYPHOON SANTI (MIRINAE) HAS ACCELERATED QUICKLY WEST-SOUTHWEST…MAY PASS NORTH OF CAMARINES SUR EARLIER THAN EXPECTED.

CURRENT INFORMATION:

TIME:  10 AM TODAY FRIDAY OCT 30

POSITION:  LAT 15.0 N, LON 125.2 E

DISTANCE FROM 1^ST DISTRICT:  270 KM NE OF LIBMANAN

DISTANCE FROM 2^ND DISTRICT:  265 KM NE OF METRO NAGA/CWC

DISTANCE FROM 3^RD DISTRICT:  200 KM NE OF CARAMOAN (GOTA BEACH)

DISTANCE FROM 4^TH DISTRICT:  265 KM NE OF IRIGA CITY

1-MIN SUSTAINED WINDS-GUSTINESS:  165-205 KPH

10-MIN PAGASA SUSTAINED WINDS-GUSTINESS:  150-185 KPH

RECENT MOVEMENT:  WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 35 KPH

TOWARDS:  POLILLO ISLANDS-NORTHERN QUEZON-BULACAN.

FORECAST OUTLOOK / POSITIONS:

The core (eye and eyewall) of SANTI is expected to just pass about 100 km. to the North of Gota Beach Resort, Caramoan around 2 PM this afternoon or 150 km. North of Naga City around 4 PM.

However, a sudden downward turn (more WSW) shall bring the core very near Partido bringing strong winds in excess of 100 kph.

We urge to get the lastest info on this  strong system every 3 or 6 hours to clearly show where it will go. Typhoons tend to shift their track 6 hours before its passage. 

CURRENT & POTENTIAL EFFECTS:

SANTI’s main circulation (590 km across) remains over the Philippine Sea but is likely to affect Bicol Peninsula this afternoon. 

CORE (EYE & EYEWALL)...remain over water…will pass with a distance of 100 km. North of Caramoan this afternoon (2PM approx). 

INNER (RAIN) BANDS…remains over the the Philippine Sea but it is expected to affect the Northern Coastal Areas of Camarines Sur (Partido, 1^st & 2^nd district facing San Miguel Bay) beginning early this afternoon. Moderate to heavy rains of up to 100 mm. can be expected w/ winds of 60-100 kph this afternoon through early evening.

OUTER (RAIN) BANDS…now spreading across Camarines Sur. Light to moderate rains of 2mm to 80 mm w/ winds of not in excess of 60 kph can be expected this afternoon through early  evening. 

TROPICAL CYCLONE HAZARDS:

HIGH WINDS

• 3^rd DISTRICT (PARTIDO):   Strong winds of not more than 100 kph can be expected  tonight especially during its closest approach beginning 2 PM until early evening.

• 2^nd DISTRICT (METRO NAGA):  Moderate to slightly strong winds not in excess of 70 kph can be expected during its closest approach this afternoon around 4 PM.

• 1^ST DISTRICT:   Moderate to slightly strong winds not in excess of 70 kph can be expected during its closest approach this afternoon at around 5PM.

• 4^th DISTRICT (RINCONADA):   Moderate to slightly strong winds not in excess of 50 kph can be expected during its closest approach this afternoon at around 4 PM.
  
  

STORM SURGE / COASTAL FLOODING

• 3^rd DISTRICT (PARTIDO):   Large and battering waves of 6 to 8 feet with coastal flooding of less than 1 feet can be expected along the eastern & northern coastlines & beach-front areas…especially the municipalities of Caramoan, Garchitorena, Lagonoy, Tinambac & Siruma. Moderate damage to docks, piers and ports can be expected on this type of storm surge.
  
  
• 2^nd DISTRICT (METRO NAGA):   Large and battering waves of 4 to 5 feet with coastal flooding of less than 1 feet can be expected along coastlines & beach-front areas facing San Miguel Bay…especially the municipalities of Cabusao and Calabanga. Minimal damage to docks, piers and ports can be expected on this type of storm surge.
  
  
• 1^st DISTRICT:   Large and battering waves of 4 to 5 feet  with coastal flooding of less than 1 feet can be expected along coastlines & beach-front areas facing Ragay Gulf & San Miguel Bay…especially the municipalities of Del Gallego, Ragay, Lupi, Pasacao, and Sipocot. Minimal damage to docks, piers and ports can be expected on this type of storm surge.
  
  
• 4^th DISTRICT (RINCONADA):  Large and battering waves of 4 to 5 feet  with coastal flooding of less than 1 feet can be expected along coastlines & beach-front areas of Bula and Balatan, facing Ragay Gulf. Minimal damage to docks, piers and ports can be expected on this type of storm surge.

INLAND FLOODING

• 2^nd DISTRICT (METRO NAGA):   Light flooding of 1-2 feet caused by the swelling of the Bicol & Naga Rivers can be expected especially along the flood-risk areas of Naga City, Canaman, Magarao, Camaligan, Gainza & Milaor.

• 4^th DISTRICT (RINCONADA):   Light to moderate flooding of not more more than 3 feet caused by  the swelling of Lakes Baao and Bato and portions of Bicol River can be expected especially along the flood-risk areas of Iriga City, Nabua, Baao, Bato, Bula & Buhi.  
• 1^st DISTRICT:   Light to moderate flooding of not more than 3 feet caused by  the swelling of Bicol River and other small rivers/estuaries can be expected along the flood-risk areas of the district particularly Sipocot, San Fernando & Minalabac.
• 3^rd DISTRICT (PARTIDO):  Light flooding of 1 to 2 feet caused by the swelling of small rivers and estuaries can be expected along the flood-risk areas of the district.
  
  

LANDSLIDES

• 3^rd DISTRICT (PARTIDO):   Small to isolated landslides can be expected along the landslide-hazard areas particularly along the steep eastern slopes of Mt. Isarog due to possible rainfall brought about by SANTI’s rainbands.
• 1^st DISTRICT:   Small to isolated landslides can be expected along the landslide-hazard-risk areas particularly along the steep slopes of Ragay Hills and the western slopes of Mt. Labo due to possible rainfall from the rainbands of SANTI.
• 4^th DISTRICT (RINCONADA):  Small to isolated landslides can be expected along the steep slopes of Mt. Asog (Iriga) particularly along the municipality Buhi and the city of Iriga…These landslides can also occur along the the southern steep slopes of Ragay Hills which passes the municipalities of Bula and Balatan.
  
  
• 2^rd DISTRICT (METRO NAGA):  None to isolated landslides can be expected along the steep northwestern, western, southwestern & southern slopes of Mt. Isarog particularly along the upper barangays of Naga City, Pili, and Ocampo.

WATCH FOR THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON TYPHOON SANTI AROUND 1:00 PM TODAY…FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AROUND 4:00 PM. 

NCF-TPC Special 3-Day Weather Outlook for Camarines Sur*

Issued: 9:00 AM Wednesday October 28, 2009

Thursday, October 29:
Sunny and windy blowing from the NE. Possible isolated to scattered rains can be expected due to the NE windflow…Typhoon SANTI (Mirinae) within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…not yet affecting Bicol.

Friday, October 30:

Becoming cloudy but still partly sunny…increasing NE winds due to the possible approach of SANTI as it moves towards Central Luzon. Rainfall will be light to moderate and mostly passing.

Saturday, October 31:

Slight deterioration of the weather as Typhoon SANTI’s outer rainbands affects Camarines Sur…Moderate to strong winds from the NE or North will blow (not in excess of 60 kph). Rainfall will be light to moderate…sky conditions will be mostly cloudy with a little sunlight. SANTI makes landfall late afternoon over Aurora.

 Monday, October 19:
Little sunshine to cloudy condtions w/ afternoon rain or thunderstorm. Light winds from the NE not exceeding 30 kph can be expected. Coastal waters will be slight to moderate.

Tuesday, October 20:

Cloudy w/ occasional showers w/ thunderstorm can be expected  due to ITCZ.  Light to moderate winds from the NW not exceeding 30 kph can be expected. Coastal waters will be slight to moderate.

 Wednesday, October 21:

Very cloudy w/ occasional showers, rains, squalls or thunderstorms can be expected due to the Extreme Southern Outer Bands of RAMIL. Moderate winds from the NW or West not exceeding 40 kph can be expected. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

 Thursday, October 22:

Mostly cloudy w/ occasional showers, rains or thunderstorms can be expected due to the Extreme Southern Outer Bands of RAMIL. Moderate winds from the SW not exceeding 40 kph can be expected. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

 Friday, October 23:

  NCF-TPC STORM ADVISORY FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RAMIL

  Typhoon LUPIT (RAMIL) has slowed down and rapidly intensified while over the Philippine Sea...now at Category 2.

*Residents and visitors along Northern & Central Luzon should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (RAMIL).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: LUPIT is expected to reduce its forward speed from 20 kph to just 5 kph w/ in the next 24 to 48. A passing mid-level low pressure (trough) is expected to weaken the steering ridge north of LUPIT, thus its slow movement. The 3 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT resuming its WNW or Westward track as a new High Pressure Steering Ridge off Taiwan develops, driving LUPIT towards Extreme Northern Luzon between Monday to Thursday (Oct 19-22). *Initial Impact Forecast (IIF): LUPIT will make landfall over Northern Cagayan on Wednesday morning, Oct 21 and exit thru Ilocos Norte Wednesday evening (Oct 22) - a track similar to the recent Typhoon PARMA (PEPENG). Please be reminded that the IIF changes every 6 hours, so a shift to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

+ Effects: LUPIT's circulation continues to organize while at sea, and is now a large-sized system, about 815 km. in diameter. Its southern outer feeder bands now expected to leave Ulithi and Yap Islands - where improving weather conditions can be expected today. This typhoon is not yet affecting Luzon, however, if the forecast track pushes through, deteriorating weathern conditions can be expected beginning Monday. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 200 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 400 mm (very heavy to extreme rain) near the center of LUPIT particularly along its projected path.

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Sat October 17 2009
Location of Eye: 14.9º N Lat 132.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 885 km (478 nm) ENE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 935 km (505 nm) ENE of Gota, Caramoan
Distance 3: 1,000 km (540 nm) ENE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 4: 1,025 km (553 nm) ENE of Daet, Cam Norte
Distance 5: 1,115 km (602 nm) ESE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 6: 1,150 km (620 nm) East of Infanta, Quezon
Distance 7: 1,215 km (655 nm) East of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 160 kph (85 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 195 kph (105 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 6-8 feet [1.8-2.6 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 959 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WNW @ 20 kph (11 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Extreme Northern Luzon
Size (in Diameter): 815 km (440 nm) / Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 18 ft (5.4 m)

NCF-TPC FLOOD ADVISORY #01 ( issued at 9am Wednesday Oct. 14,2009) Light to possible flooding of up to 3 feet can be expected across the flood-risk areas of Camarines Sur particularly Rinconada.  This is due to the rain bands of developing low pressure near the coast of southern Samar (10.8N Lat 125.0 E Long) with CIS expected to cross northern Visayas today.  This rainfall caused bythis disturbance will persist throughout the day.  The Next Advisory will be issued at 12noon today.

 Wednesday, October 14:
Cloudy w/ occasional to widespread rains & thunderstorms due to an approaching Low Pressure Area (LPA) which may develop into a weak Tropical Depression. Lookout on possible light flooding must be implemented during the approach of this disturbance.

 Thursday, October 15:

Cloudy w/ occasional to widespread rains & thunderstorms due to the passage of the LPA or TD near Bicol or over Central Visayas.  Possible light flooding is likely if thick rainclouds from the disturbance passes over Camarines Sur.

 Friday, October 16:

Improving weather conditions but still mostly cloudy conditions with scattered passing rains/thunderstorms. LPA or TD likely to be over Mindoro or Northern Palawan..exiting the South China Sea.

Saturday, October 17:

Partly cloudy w/ a burst of sunshine…scattered rains and thunderstorms can still be expected especially in the afternoon or evening.

This forecast was created by Michael V. Padua as requested by PDCC, Camarines Sur.

SUPER TYPHOON PEPENG (PARMA) STILL OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA…MAINTAINED ITS FAST WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK CLOSER TO BICOL REGION. ITS INNER BANDS TO REACH CAMARINES SUR EARLY TOMORROW.

CURRENT INFORMATION:

TIME: 6:00 PM TODAY THURSDAY OCT 01

POSITION:  LAT 12.9 N, LON 128.9 E

DISTANCE FROM 1^ST DISTRICT:  645 KM ESE OF LIBMANAN

DISTANCE FROM 2^ND DISTRICT:  620 KM ESE OF METRO NAGA/CWC

DISTANCE FROM 3^RD DISTRICT:  560 KM ESE OF CARAMOAN (GOTA BEACH)

DISTANCE FROM 4^TH DISTRICT:  600 KM ESE OF IRIGA CITY

1-MIN SUSTAINED WINDS-GUSTINESS:  240-295 KPH

10-MIN PAGASA SUSTAINED WINDS-GUSTINESS:  195-230 KPH

RECENT MOVEMENT:  WEST-NORTHWEST AT 30 KPH

TOWARDS:  ISABELA-CAGAYAN AREA.

FORECAST OUTLOOK / POSITIONS:

The core (eye and eyewall) of PEPENG is expected to pass near Cam Sur, about 200 km. to the NE of Gota Beach Resort, Caramoan or 265 km. NE of Naga City tomorrow afternoon approx. 2-5 PM…as a Category 5 Super Typhoon, carrying winds of 260 kph w/ gustiness up to 315 kph. 

However, a sudden turn to the left (or taking a Westerly track) shall bring the core very near to the 3^rd district (Partido) bringing catastrophic, super typhoon conditions across the area and nearby districts

The 2 to 3-day Medium-Range Forecast shows PEPENG moving away from Cam Sur early Saturday morning, with improving weather Sunday or Monday depending on the circulation of PEPENG. The core shall make landfall along the coast of Isabela and cross Northern Cagayan very slowly, passing directly or very close to Aparri on Sunday, Oct 4.. 

We urge to get the latest info on this very dangerous system every 3 or 6 hours to clearly show where it will go. Typhoons tend to shift their track 6 hours before its passage. 

2 AM TOMORROW:    13.7N  127.1E (250 kph)
2 PM TOMORROW:    15.1N  125.1E (260 kph)

2 AM SATURDAY:      16.3N  123.7E (260 kph)

2 PM SATURDAY:      17.5N  122.5E (250 kph)

2 PM SUNDAY:         18.4N  121.8E (230 kph)  

CURRENT & POTENTIAL EFFECTS:

PEPENG’s main circulation (560 km across) remains over the Philippine Sea but is likely to affect Bicol Peninsula late tonight or early tomorrow…and shall persists throughout Friday. 

CORE (EYE & EYEWALL)...shall remain over water with a closest distance of about 200 km. NE of Gota Beach, Caramoan by tomorrow afternoon approx. between 2-5 PM. 

INNER (RAIN) BANDS…remains over the the Philippine Sea but it is expected to affect the Eastern Coastal Areas of Camarines Sur (Partido and portions 2^nd district facing San Miguel Bay) beginning tomorrow…Moderate to heavy rains can be expected w/ winds not exceeding 100 kph. 

OUTER (RAIN) BANDS…remains over Camarines Sur w/ deteriorating weather conditions later tonight or early tomorrow.  Light to moderate rains w/ winds of not in excess of 60 kph can be expected.   

1-day rainfall accumulations of 100 to 200 mm (moderate to heavy rains) can be expected along its rain bands…with isolated accumulations of more than 400 mm (very heavy to extreme rainfall)  especially along the eyewall of PEPENG, which shall remain at sea, unless it changes its course. Possible widespread flooding is likely to occur during the passage of this super typhoon.

TROPICAL CYCLONE HAZARDS:

HIGH WINDS

• 3^rd DISTRICT (PARTIDO):   Very strong winds of 60 to 120 kph can be expected  tomorrow especially during its closest approach tomorrow afternoon…to persists through the night hours.

• 2^nd DISTRICT (METRO NAGA):  Moderate to slightly strong winds not in excess of 60 kph can be expected during its closest approach tomorrow afternoon until the night hours.

• 1^ST DISTRICT:   Moderate to slightly strong winds not in excess of 60 kph can be expected during its closest approach tomorrow afternoon until the night hours.

• 4^th DISTRICT (RINCONADA):   Moderate to slightly strong winds not in excess of 60 kph can be expected during its closest approach tomorrow afternoon until the night hours.
  
  

STORM SURGE / COASTAL FLOODING

• 3^rd DISTRICT (PARTIDO):   Large and battering waves of 13 to 18 feet with coastal flooding of more than 2 feet can be expected along the eastern & northern coastlines & beach-front areas…especially the municipalities of Caramoan, Garchitorena, Lagonoy, Tinambac & Siruma. Extreme damage to docks, piers and ports can be expected on this type of storm surge.
  
  
• 2^nd DISTRICT (METRO NAGA):   Large and battering waves of 9 to 12 feet with coastal flooding of 1 to 2 feet can be expected along coastlines & beach-front areas facing San Miguel Bay…especially the municipalities of Cabusao and Calabanga. Extensive damage to docks, piers and ports can be expected on this type of storm surge.
  
  
• 1^st DISTRICT:   Large and battering waves of 6 to 8 feet  with coastal flooding of 1 to 2 feet can be expected along coastlines & beach-front areas facing Ragay Gulf & San Miguel Bay…especially the municipalities of Del Gallego, Ragay, Lupi, Pasacao, and Sipocot. Moderate damage to docks, piers and ports can be expected on this type of storm surge.

• 4^th DISTRICT (RINCONADA):  Large and battering waves of 4 to 5 feet  with coastal flooding of less than 2 feet can be expected along coastlines & beach-front areas of Bula and Balatan, facing Ragay Gulf. Minimal damage to docks, piers and ports can be expected on this type of storm surge.

INLAND FLOODING

• 2^nd DISTRICT (METRO NAGA):   Possible moderate flooding of more than 3 feet caused by the overflowing & swelling of the Bicol & Naga Rivers can be expected especially along the flood-risk areas of Naga City, Canaman, Magarao, Camaligan, Gainza & Milaor.

• 4^th DISTRICT (RINCONADA):   Possible moderate to heavy flooding of more than 5 feet caused by  the overflowing and swelling of Lakes Baao and Bato and portions of Bicol River can be expected especially along the flood-risk areas of Iriga City, Nabua, Baao, Bato, Bula & Buhi.
  
  
• 1^st DISTRICT:   Possible moderate to heavy flooding of more than 3 feet caused by  the overflowing and swelling of Bicol River and other small rivers/estuaries can be expected along the flood-risk areas of the district particularly Sipocot, San Fernando & Minalabac.
  
  
• 3^rd DISTRICT (PARTIDO):  Possible lght to moderate flooding of 1 to 2 feet caused by the overflowing and swelling of small rivers and estuaries can be expected along the flood-risk areas of the district.
  
  
  

LANDSLIDES

• 3^rd DISTRICT (PARTIDO):   Widespread landslides can be expected along the landslide-hazard areas particularly along the steep eastern slopes of Mt. Isarog and other nearby mountains due to possible heavy rainfall from the rainbands of PEPENG.
  
  
• 1^st DISTRICT:   Widespread landslides can be expected along the landslide-hazard-risk areas particularly along the steep slopes of Ragay Hills and the western slopes of Mt. Labo due to possible heavy rainfall from the rainbands of PEPENG.
  
  
• 4^th DISTRICT (RINCONADA):  Isolated to widespread landslides can be expected along the steep slopes of Mt. Asog (Iriga) particularly along the municipality Buhi and the city of Iriga…isolated landslides can also occur along the the southern steep slopes of Ragay Hills which passes the municipalities of Bula and Balatan.
  
  
• 2^rd DISTRICT (METRO NAGA):  Isolated landslides can be expected along the steep northwestern, western, southwestern & southern slopes of Mt. Isarog particularly along the upper barangays of Naga City, Pili, and Ocampo.

WATCH FOR THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY ON SUPER TYPHOON PEPENG AROUND 9:00 PM TONIGHT. 

SUPER TYPHOON PEPENG (PARMA) MAINTAINS ITS CATEGORY 4 STATUS  WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH…STILL ON A FAST WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHERN CAMARINES SUR…PREPARATION MUST REMAIN IN FULL ALERT

CURRENT INFORMATION:

TIME: 3:00 PM TODAY THURSDAY OCT 01

POSITION:  LAT 12.5 N, LON 129.4 E

DISTANCE FROM 1^ST DISTRICT:  710 KM ESE OF LIBMANAN

DISTANCE FROM 2^ND DISTRICT:  685 KM ESE OF METRO NAGA/CWC

DISTANCE FROM 3^RD DISTRICT:  615KM ESE OF CARAMOAN (GOTA BEACH)

DISTANCE FROM 4^TH DISTRICT:  660 KM ESE OF IRIGA CITY

1-MIN SUSTAINED WINDS-GUSTINESS:  240-295 KPH

10-MIN PAGASA SUSTAINED WINDS-GUSTINESS:  175-185 KPH

RECENT MOVEMENT:  WEST-NORTHWEST AT 28 KPH

TOWARDS:  NORTHERN LUZON.

FORECAST OUTLOOK / POSITIONS:

The core (eye and eyewall) of PEPENG is expected to just pass about 250 km. to the NE of Gota Beach Resort, Caramoan or 300 km. NE of Naga City tomorrow afternoon approx. 2-5 PM…as a Category 5 Super Typhoon with winds of 260 kph with gustiness up to 315 kph. 

The 24-hr to 3-day Medium-Range Forecast shows PEPENG moving away from Cam Sur Saturday morning, with improving weather Sunday or Monday depending on the speed. The core shall make landfall along the northern tip of Cagayan or about 75 km. to the east of Aparri by Sunday evening.

 However, a sudden turn to the left (or Westward) shall bring the core very  near Partido bringing catastrophic super typhoon conditions across area and nearby districts. 

 We urge to get the lastest info on this very dangerous system every 3 or 6 hours to clearly show where it will go. Typhoons tend to shift their track 6 hours before it passage. 

8 PM TODAY:            13.1N  128.6E (250 kph)
8 AM TOMORROW:    14.5N  126.4E (260 kph)

8 PM TOMORROW:    15.6N  125.1E (260 kph)

8 AM  SATURDAY:     16.7N  123.7E (270 kph)

8 AM  SUNDAY:         17.6N  122.8E (230 kph)  

CURRENT & POTENTIAL EFFECTS:

 PEPENG’s main circulation (500 km across) remains over the Philippine Sea but is likely to affect Bicol Peninsula late today. 

 CORE (EYE & EYEWALL)...shall remain over water with a distance of 250 km. NE of Caramoan tomorrow afternoon.  
INNER (RAIN) BANDS…remains over the the Philippine Sea but it is expected to affect the Eastern Coastal Areas of Camarines Sur (Partido and portions 2^nd district facing San Miguel Bay) beginning tomorrow…Moderate to heavy rains can be expected w/ winds of 60-100 kph. 

  OUTER (RAIN) BANDS…approaching Camarines Sur w/ deteriorating weather conditions later this afternoon until tomorrow. Light to moderate rains w/ winds of not in excess of 60 kph can be expected.   

 1-day rainfall accumulations of 100 to 200 mm (moderate to heavy rains) can be expected along its rain bands…with isolated accumulations of more than 400 mm (very heavy to extreme rainfall)  especially in the eyewall of PEPENG. Possible widespread flooding is likely to occur during the passage of this super typhoon.

TROPICAL CYCLONE HAZARDS:

 HIGH WINDS

 3^rd DISTRICT (PARTIDO):   Very strong winds of more than 100 kph can be expected  tomorrow especially during its closest approach tomorrow afternoon.

• 2^nd DISTRICT (METRO NAGA):  Moderate to slightly strong winds not in excess of 60 kph can be expected during its closest approach tomorrow afternoon.

• 1^ST DISTRICT:   Moderate to slightly strong winds not in excess of 60 kph can be expected during its closest approach tomorrow afternoon.

• 4^th DISTRICT (RINCONADA):   Moderate to slightly strong winds not in excess of 60 kph can be expected during its closest approach tomorrow afternoon.
  
  

STORM SURGE / COASTAL FLOODING

• 3^rd DISTRICT (PARTIDO):   Large and battering waves of 13 to 18 feet with coastal flooding of more than 2 feet can be expected along the eastern & northern coastlines & beach-front areas…especially the municipalities of Caramoan, Garchitorena, Lagonoy, Tinambac & Siruma. Extreme damage to docks, piers and ports can be expected on this type of storm surge.
  
  
• 2^nd DISTRICT (METRO NAGA):   Large and battering waves of 9 to 12 feet with coastal flooding of 1 to 2 feet can be expected along coastlines & beach-front areas facing San Miguel Bay…especially the municipalities of Cabusao and Calabanga. Extensive damage to docks, piers and ports can be expected on this type of storm surge.
  
  
• 1^st DISTRICT:   Large and battering waves of 6 to 8 feet  with coastal flooding of 1 to 2 feet can be expected along coastlines & beach-front areas facing Ragay Gulf & San Miguel Bay…especially the municipalities of Del Gallego, Ragay, Lupi, Pasacao, and Sipocot. Moderate damage to docks, piers and ports can be expected on this type of storm surge.

NCF-TPC Ondoy Advisory # 05 ( 1am Saturday, September 26, 2009)

Tropical storm Ondoy now passing North of Catanduanes ( 14.7 n, 124.5 E) Thick rainbands still affecting Camarines Provinces Brining Moderate to Heavy Rains. 25 - 100 mm of rainfall accumulations can be expected for the next  12-24 hours with isolated accumulations of up to 200 mm alonmg mountain slopes.  Moderate  flooding of 3 feet or more is possible along flood risk areas of Camarines Sur Bicol.  A volunteer  from Nabua has reported  that waras River along diversion road going Baao are near  critical level of overflowing  that could lead to flooding along areas which also includes Balayan creek.  Next advisory will be issued around 6am today

NCF-TPC Ondoy Advisory # 04 ( 6pm Friday September 25, 2009) Tropical Depression Ondoy still moving closer to NOrthern Bicol with  rainbands affecting Bicol provinces. 25 - 100 mm of rainfall accumulations can be expected for the next 12-24 hours with isolated  accumulationms of up to 200 mm along mountain slopes. Light to moderate flooding of 3 feet or more is possible along flood risk areas of Bicol region  as of 6pm today, teh center was located about 265km ENE of Virac Catanduanes ( 14.1 N 126.7 E) with maximum sustauined winds of 45 kph.  It was moving west at 17 kph towards Central Luzon.  Ondoy is forecasted to pass about 150km North of Bicol 2pm tomorrow ( 15.0 N, 123.6 E) PAGASA Signal Number 2 now up over Catanduanes and Camarines Sur provinces.  The next advisory will be issued around 6am tomorrow

NCF-TPC Ondoy Advisory # 03 (1pm Friday September 25 2009)

 Tropical Depression Ondoy moving slowly closer to northern Bicol.  Thick rain bands is now affecting Bicol provinces, 25 to 100 mm of rainfall accumulations can be expected for the next  24 hours with isolated accumulations of up to200mm  along mountain slopes.  Light to moderate flooding of 3 feet or more is possible along the flood risk areas of Bicol region.  As of 12pm today, the center was located about 335 km ENE of Virac Catanduanes (14.3n 127.3e) with maximum sustained winds of 45kph.  It was moving West at 13kph towards Central Luzon.  Ondoy is forecasted to pass about 120km north of Bicol 5pm tomorrow ( 14.8n 124.0e) PAGASA SIGNAL number 1 remains hoisted over Catnduanes and Camarines Provinces.  The next advisory will be issued 6pm today.

Add your main content here - text, photos, videos, addons, whatever you want!

NCF-TPC Advisory # 01 ( 6am Fri Sep 25, 2009). Tropical depression  Ondoy weakend slightly and slowed down as it nears Northern  Bicol..its scattered raindands is now affecting Bicol province, 25 to 75 mm of rainfall accumulations can be expected for the next 24 hours with isolated accumulations of up to 100 to 150 mm along  mountain slopes. Light flooding of up to 2 feet is possible along the flood risk areas of Bicol region. As of 6am today, the center was located about 350km ENE of VIrac, Ctanduanes ( 14.5n 127.4e) with maximum sustained winds of 45kph. It was moving WNW at 15kph towards Central Luzon Ondoy is forecasted to pass about 150km north of Bicol 2am tomorrow ( 14.9n, 124.1 e) PAGASA SIGNAKL number 1 hoisted over Catanduanes and Camarines provinces. Next advisory around 6pm today.

NCF-TPC Advisory # 01 ( 9pm Thu Sep 24, 2009) Tropical depresssion Ondoy continues tomove closer to Northern Bicol. Its scattered rainbands expected to affect Bicol and Samar provinces. 25 tp 50mm of rainfall accumulations can be expected for the next 24 hours with isolated accumulations ofup to 75 to 100mm along mountain slopes. Light flooding of up to 2 feet is possible along the floodrisk areas of Bicol region if the rainbands of Ondoy becomes thick. As of 9pm today the center was located about 245km ENE of Virac, Catanduanes ( 14.1 n 126.5 e) with maximun sustained winds of 5.5kph.  It was moving West at 22kph. Towards Central Luzon. Ondoy is forecasted  to pass about 150km North of Bicol tomorrow afternoon and over Central Luzon Saturday PM.  Next Advisory around 6am Tomorrow

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS BROUGHT ABOUT BY INTENSE

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE (ITCZ) ARE BRINGING

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS ACROSS CAMARINES SUR ESPECIALLY

1ST, 2ND AND 4TH DISTRICT...THESE "ON-AND-OFF" RAINS MAY LAST FOR

ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND MAY PRODUCE 50 TO 100 MM OF RAINFALL.

THE RESULT OF THESE RAINS MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODS DURING SUDDEN

DOWNPOURS...AND CAUSE 1 TO 2 FEET OF LIGHT FLOODING ACROSS

LOW-LYING AREAS OF CAMARINES SUR ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FLOOD-

RISK AREAS OF 1ST AND 2ND DISTRICT LOCATED WITHIN THE BICOL

RIVER BASIN.

SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER ARE USUALLY PRONE MONTHS FOR INTENSE

I.T.C.Z. ACROSS THE BICOL REGION. WHERE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS

DEVELOP AND CAUSE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER AFFECTED AREAS. IT ALSO

DURING THESE MONTHS THAT DANGEROUS AND POWERFUL TYPHOONS

FORM.

THESE ADVISORY IS VALID ONLY FOR TODAY.

NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED IF NECESSARY

NCF-TPC Final Flassh flood advisory ( 7am July 27 2009) The ITCZ induced heavy rains which fell over Cam Sur and other areas of Bicol early this morning has stopped with its clouds dissipating.  Thus the 1-2 feet of light flashflood warning along floodprobe areas of Rinconada and Bicol River basin has been cancelled.  This is final advisory on this rain event.

NCF-TPC Flass Flood advisory # 1 (1AM July 27 2009) Moderate tovery heavy rains of 50 to 100mm is currently falling over Camarines Sur and otrher areas of Bicol for the past hour.  This sudden downpour may produce 1-2 feet of light flash flood along flood prone areas of Rinconada and Bicol River basin areas.  The rain was due to a strong broad thunderstorm induced by ITCZ. which developed over Bicol  a few hours ago, If the rain continous in the next hour or so,moderate flooding of up to 3-4 feet may occur. Please take necessary measures.  Next  update may be issued today if necessary.

NCF-TPC FLOOD WATCH #004 FINAL ( as of 12pm Friday July 17, 2009)

The threat of light flooding  over flood risk areas of Rinconada and Bicol River Basin Areas has been lifted.  Themoonsoon rainclouds that are passing overCam Sur no longer have the capacity tocreate moderate to heavy rainfall, only lightrains of 5mm to 10 mm can be expected.  TS Isang is now passing over the Calayan-Batanes islands and only western LUzon willbe affected by the heavy monsoon weather. Unless a new surge of monsson rainclouds develops, this is the last and final  floodwatch by NCF-TPC.

.NCF-TPC FLOOD WATCH #003 ( as of 6am Friday July 17, 2009)

NCF-TPC FLOOD WATCH #002 ( as of 6pm Thursday July 16, 2009)

NCF-TPC FLOOD WATCH #001 ( as of 12pm Thursday July 16, 2009)

Ligh flooding up to 1-2 feet is possible in floodrisk areas of rinconada andalong the Bicol River Basin.  Rainfall up to  50mm due to outer bands of TS Isang and the enhanced South West Monsoon ( Habagat) is expected to fall over Cam Sur today.  Please take precautionary measures.  Next  update will be issued at 6pm today.add text, images, video, widgets, etc...

 TYPHOON FERIA

NCF –TPC FERIA ADVISORY #03 – Final ( as of 6:00amWed Jun 24): TS Feria has accelerated and is now over Romblon ( 12.5N 122.3 E About 155 km away from Metro Naga, Max Winds 85 kph gusting to 100kph. Moving WNW at 19kph.

FORECAST: It will make landfall over Mindoro at noontime then exit over South China Sea Tonight.

EFFECTS: Feria's rainband is expected to start moving away from Camarines Sur and Bicol today bringing improving weather w/in the next 6-12hrs. The expected flooding in flood –risk areas of Rinconada and parts of Camaligan-Gainza- Milaor-San Fernando-Minalabac w/in the next 12-24 hrs has been cancelled. This is the final advisory of NCF-TPC on Feria

 NCF-TPC FERIA ADVISORY #02 ( as of 6:00pm Tue June 23) Storm Signal Number 2 now in effect over the whole of Bicol Region as              Tropical Storm Feria made landfall over eastern Samar awhile ago ans is now over Northern Samar, just South of Catarman (12.3  N 124.9 E) maximum winds 75 kph gusting to 90kph moving West North West at 17kph. 

FORECAST: It shall pass over Masbate-Ticao around Midnight or  about 120km South of Metro Naga.  It shall be over Lucena Batangas Tomorrow Evening.

EFFECTS: Feria's rainband is expected to continue to bring light to moderate to sometimes heavy rainfall up to 150 mm across Camarines Sur w/in the next 12 to 18 hrs. Light to moderate flooding can still be expected in flood risk areas of Rinconada and parts of Camaligan, Gainza, Milaor, San Fernando, Minalabac within the next 24 to 36 hours. Precautionary measures must remain in full alert. Next Advisory at 12pm tonight.

NCF-TPC FERIA ADVISORY #01 ( as of 1:40pm tue June 23) TD Feria has been upgraded to a tropical Storm and is now near Guiuan Samar( 11.2 ne 126.1 e) max winds 65kph gusting to 85kph. Moving West at 19kph FIORECAST: It will make landfall over Samar this PM, it shall pass over Masbate or Burias early tomorrow. EFFECTS: Feria’s rainband is expected to bring moderate to heavy rainfall up to 150 mm across Camarines Sur w/in the next 12 to 18 hrs. Light to moderate flooding can be expected inflood risk areas of Rinconada and parts of Camaligan, Gainza,Milaor, San Fernando, Minalabac within the next 24 to 36 hours. Precautionary measuresmust be implemented asap. Next Advisory at 6pm today

Add your main content here - text, photos, videos, addons, whatever you want!